This time is different

The most expensive words in investing.

While I’m a long term BTC bull, I truly believe the bear market isn’t over. So far there’s been no confirmation of the bull market starting, or the bear market ending. Counter trend rallies should be expected, whichever way they present themselves.

This recent pump has been glorious but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 58k again. Recently everyone has decided that the FED is now dovish/neutral and won’t increase rates this fall. But considering the impact of the treasury’s statements on their purchasing of 10 and 30 year bonds was erased in 24 hours, I think the FED might HAVE to be hawkish. And looking at what the FED minutes stated yesterday (everyone seems to have brushed it off because of the news of bond buybacks…how convenient), I think the FED is ready to be hawkish. I think the bonds showed that clearly the market doesn’t believe the administration has things under control and I believe they want to see the FED take action. That doesn’t guaranteed rate hikes, but even the threat of rate hikes is enough at this point. That said, if the FED becomes more hawkish, I think the September meeting can get spicy and considering the Clarity act might be a sell the news event, I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit one last low in September/October. Lining up perfectly with the 4 year cycle.

Now of course, no one knows anything for sure. But considering people have been so quick to call the bottom and bulls have been dancing on the graves of bears, I think this may be just another counter trend rally. One fuelled by an enormous amount of shorts.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts and add any factors you think I missed???? thanks for reading????

TLDR
- Just another counter trend rally fuelled by shorts
- Clarity act and September FOMC might be final leg down
- 4 year cycle could still be intact