The "Presidential Cycle" Strategy: Why Buying Bitcoin 2 Years Before US Elections Works

A popular macro theory links Bitcoin's price cycles to the US political calendar: accumulate Bitcoin roughly 2 years before presidential elections during lower prices, and sell after.

1. The 2012 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2010): Bitcoin was at the very beginning of its journey, and its price was only about $0.20 – $0.30.

- During the election (November 2012): The price had risen and hovered around $11 – $13.

- After the election (throughout 2013): A powerful bull market began, during which the price skyrocketed to an all-time peak of nearly $1,100 by late 2013.

2. The 2016 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2014): Following the crash of the 2013 bubble, the market was in a prolonged correction, and the price of Bitcoin was roughly $320 – $380.

- During the election (November 2016): At the time of the vote, the asset was worth about $700 – $710.

- After the election (2017): Post-election airdrops/rallies and mass adoption led to a historic surge up to $20,000 in December 2017.

3. The 2020 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2018): The market was experiencing the harsh bottom of a bear market, and Bitcoin dropped to $3,800 – $4,000 (following the 2017 peak).

- During the election (November 2020): On the days of the vote, the price was around $13,500 – $15,000.

- After the election (late 2020 — spring 2021): Liquidity stimuli and post-election optimism pushed the price to a previous high of $69,000 (in November 2021).

4. The 2024 Election Cycle

- 2 years before the election (November 2022): Amid the FTX collapse, the market hit another bottom, and Bitcoin traded in the $16,000 – $17,000 range. This was an ideal entry point for a two-year buy under this strategy.

- During the election (November 2024): At the time of Donald Trump's victory, Bitcoin was trading above $70,000 – $75,000.

- After the election (late 2024 — 2025): The market entered a massive post-election rally, breaking all-time records and rising above $126,000 in October 2025.

Conclusion: Across all four cycles, the price 2 years before the election turned out to be significantly lower (at the bottom or in a deep accumulation phase) than at the time of the election itself or during the active growth period following it.