Future of BTC/ALTS, Tax requirements, Ban Lists, Wallet-Identify Exposure, Small Spending Privacy.

I have these thoughts on crypto regulation for anti-money laundering and tax purposes.
I know little of the current political space. Just speculation.

1. Anonymity of small transactions could become less private.

Government mandate reporting of personal addresses for tax paying purposes.
Exchanges reports trades and outflows to nominated addresses.
If a government says transactions for personal use under a limit, such as 10k, are tax-free.
Your only purpose for wanting an anonymous wallet is to circumvent tax on purchases over 10K, except most assets at this size require POI/KYC OR for small transaction privacy conerns i will talk about further down.
Government will require business wallet addresses to be reported.
They can then link all Citizens with small spending habits.

If you purchase from a marketing company (Fb, Google etc), or one that sells data to a data broker, if the marketing company/broker then collects a list of business addresses, they can see your spending habits (not individual items, just cost at a shop).
This also means these companies can identify big fish (large investors, founders, insiders) and track their trades, or spending habits for geo-tracking and corporate espionage (im sure the potential exists).

2. Wallet address + Identity Association - Security and CBDC Roles

If these marketing companies/broker, government, or any company that registers your identity with wallet address is hacked.
You are open to hacking (social engineering/phishing emails/sim swap 2FA/kidnapping/blackmail/Scams).
A bank would normally protect/manage compromised accounts.
Now it's up to you.
If a service like haveibeenpwned.com existed for these exposed links (identity+wallet) you would need to transfer funds to a new wallet, but it would be on the ledger.
So you would rely on a tumbler, monero, or what i believe will happen.

A CBDC funds exchange service. You send them your funds from a compromised account, using them like a VPN privacy layer (as their ledger is private), then they send funds to nominated new wallet address.

3. Integration of these concerns and BAN lists

If private and business wallets are recorded by government, they may choose to use BAN address lists. To prevent tax avoidance and crime.
They may even say "If its not registered it is banned, until it is registered".
In this senario it would make BTC/ALTS banned from direct purchasing of goods and services unless there was a new protocol layer to cross-reference with updated BAN lists.

More likely they will require BTC conversion via lightning to CBDC smart contract at the terminal to accept or deny based on registering status of the wallet address.
Meaning the bank will still see your every small transaction, and will likely take a fee as well.

It'd be difficult to implement this for just 1 country as travellers would be restricted to traditional currency systems. Unless.
It works into the current SWIFT network of participating banks in many countries.
So again the banks see all, the government controls functionality of funds:
You own it in cold wallets, but they restrict where you can use it.

4. Banks, CBDC and loans

Banks need peoples money in storage - so they can create loans with fractional reserve lending.
If they have less in the bank, less loans, so naturally they will subsidise some of this loss by becoming a payment processor.
Maybe Crypto Staking pools will be allowed with 3rd parties, or even banks!
But IMO the government like small number of big entities for 'easier' regulation.
There is worry of how smaller businesses might manage risk profiles A+, A, B etc... lumping of credit loans (GFC crash).
This may be a way they can recuperate bank balances for loan creation from staking.
Or time-release smart contracts so you can still withdraw funds slowly during a crisis instead of a pure bank hold, so you own the funds in a private key, its access is blocked for a certain time after request which allows banks some time and less risk to offer loans with their fractional reserve requirements.

TLDR;

How this may look.
You store in cold wallets.
So banks cannot with-hold withdrawals in a time of crisis or market upheaval.
But the government now can BAN you based on changing aggressiveness and thresholds for applying BAN lists to prevent circumventing tax, money-laundering and crime proceeds.
They can also see your spending habits at retailers which they were not privvy to previously unless they Audited you.

Hackers and Marketing Companies know even more about you.
Marketing companies that associate identity to personal wallet addresses can compare to Business Address registers, and now also have personal spending habit data, can identify big fish for insider trading and corporate espionage.

If government force a BTC to CBDC conversion at payment terminals to compare to the BAN lists, banks will then see all spending data, again, and likely charge as a payment processor due to less people holding CBDC/Fiat in their Bank accounts (if in cold wallet opposed to multi-crypto friendly banking wallets).
Loaning systems with the banks is disrupted which will affect economies if 3rd party solutions are created and regulated.
Any compromise of your account requires a CBDC privacy fund transfer service to a new wallet, or tumbler or monero.
Banks if multi-cryto friendly would be able to control your funds.
Unless they designed a delay-released of funds protocols for parking crypto assets in you bank account, which reduces bank risk profile to use that capital to create loans. While maintaining some ability to hold ownership based on a smart contract without them halting it until they feel like it.

Thoughts?